Burley, Idaho 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

344
FXUS65 KPIH 100801
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
101 AM MST Sun Nov 10 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today and Monday
Early morning satellite imagery shows clouds continuing to increase
across the area this morning in association with a shortwave that
will move through the area over the course of the day Sunday. This
system doesn`t appear too problematic however as it lacks any
appreciable moisture and aside from a few scattered rain/snow
showers across the central mountains, eastern highlands and along
the Montana Divide, most of us will remain dry. Even the areas that
do see some precip, won`t see more than a few hundredths of QPF at
best, so perhaps a light dusting of snow across some of the highest
terrain. The only noticeable impact to sensible weather will be the
mostly cloudy to cloudy skies throughout the day on Sunday
regionwide. Despite the clouds, we`ll still see temperatures warm
into the 50s across much of the lower valleys today with 40s likely
across the high country. Winds aren`t expected to increase much
today either as the aforementioned shortwave is rather weak so still
expecting winds to be light throughout the day.

This feature will depart to the east on Monday and clouds should
begin to clear out somewhat during the morning and early afternoon,
albeit briefly, as a much stronger upper level trough will dip into
the Pacific NW. By late in the day MOnday, clouds will begin
increasing quickly with precip eventually moving into the central
mountains by late afternoon and throughout the rest of the evening
and into Tuesday AM. This system will have more of an impact on the
area than our first system. More on it below... McKaughan

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Sunday
Low pressure crosses the state Tuesday, just crossing the Divide
late in the day. It looks like the best chance of rain and snow
after sunrise will be along and east of I-15. We will also be
watching for a potential reinforcing shot from Pocatello northward
from a convergence/upslope hybrid band of moisture. By late
afternoon and early evening, we quickly dry out...with lingering
light showers across the Sawtooths and eastern highlands. It also
looks pretty breezy Tuesday, so we could see some pockets of
blowing snow in the higher elevations. Down low, we COULD be
flirting with wind advisory thresholds...which is something we
will have to continue to look at over the next 24-36 hours.
Current probability forecasts have less than 25% of exceeding 45
mph across portions of the Snake Plain, Magic Valley, bench areas,
and the South Hills/Albion Mountains. Precipitation totals still
favor the Sawtooths and eastern highlands/Tetons with 0.30-0.60"
of moisture. there is a 10-30% chance of exceeding the high end
across the Sawtooths. There is 30-50% chance of exceeding that
around Island Park and the Tetons. The chance more than 0.75"
drops to 20-30%. Snowfall totals generally favor up to 4" for the
mountain ranges, and 6-8" for the Sawtooths and higher elevations
of Island Park and the Tetons. There is a small break most of
Wednesday as high pressure briefly shifts across Idaho ahead of
the next low. It remains wet across the Sawtooths and eastern
highlands, before we see off and on precipitation through next
weekend. There is some consensus showing the next storm splitting
as it moves inland...which would definitely impact where and how
much moisture falls. Higher chances, based on the current Blend of
Models and clusters is Friday and Saturday. Keyes


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected through the period. Clouds will continue
to increase throughout the early morning with widespread clouds
expected for much of the day today. That being said, CIGs are
likely to remain in the 8-12 kft range through the period so still
anticipating VFR conditions. Aside from a low end shower
potential around KSUN and KDIJ, east Idaho terminals should remain
dry and winds will continue to be light. McKaughan

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$